Passos, Dário (2012), "Evolution of Solar Parameters since 1750 Based on a Truncated Dynamo Model", The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 744, Issue 2.
Abstract: We use a truncated dynamo model and observations of the sunspot number to infer cycle-to-cycle variations of several dynamo parameters. A correlation study between model parameters and solar cycle observables (period, amplitude, and rising time) is done, and our results are compared with the results of other authors. Using the strongest correlations found, we determined a series of relationships that can be used for prediction purposes. This technique indicates that solar cycle 24 will have a sunspot maximum of approximately 84 around June of 2013. In the context of the used model, most of the variability found in the solar cycle can be attributed to changes in the strength of the meridional circulation. The results also point to a common origin for the source of variation of the meridional flow and differential rotation and/or the α-effect.
Keywords: prediction of solar activity, solar cycle 24, dynamo parameters evolution
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